Where the Big Money’s Going: How Top VCs Are Reading the Next Decade

A few years ago, a $400M Series A would’ve raised eyebrows. Today, it might just be the ante, if you’re in AI infrastructure. At SXSW London, a heavyweight VC panel gathered to answer a blunt question: where is the big money going?

Moderated by Sam Shead, the conversation brought together Antoine Moyroud (Lightspeed), Laura McGinnis (Balderton), Jane Alexander (CapitalG), Deepka Rana (Northzone), and Tommy Stadlen (Giant Ventures). While the sectors may have shifted, AI, climate, defense, deep tech, the playbook for enduring investments is being rewritten in real time.

From infrastructure scale to user-level experiences, investors stressed a growing divergence in where AI capital is actually flowing.

Jane Alexander of CapitalG emphasized that while early enthusiasm focused on foundational models and wrappers, those spaces are already dominated by hyperscalers. “Unlike mobile or cloud, the value in AI is disproportionately accruing to incumbents,” she noted.

Instead, smart bets lie in differentiated applications. The challenge? Most “AI startups” offer shallow value. “If everyone can send semi-custom emails, the value of that email goes to zero,” Alexander warned.

What wins, then, is context: systems that remember, learn, and tailor over time. Laura McGinnis pointed to areas like personal assistants, contextual memory, and proprietary data models, not just tools, but defensible ecosystems.

Tommy Stadlen of Giant Ventures made the case that AI and climate are the twin macro forces of this decade and their intersection is where the real opportunity lies.

Whether it’s data centers off-grid (Gridfree), new materials for carbon capture (Cast.AI), or enzyme discovery at scale, his firm is betting on AI’s role in enabling sustainability breakthroughs.

And across the panel, one geopolitical theme kept surfacing: sovereignty. From defense tech to sovereign clouds, European governments are pushing for domestic control over data, energy, and infrastructure. “Nobody wanted to talk about it a year ago,” Stadlen said. “Now it’s central to every conversation.”

Lightspeed’s Antoine Moyroud added that deep-tech resurgence from energy to reindustrialization is being driven as much by regulation and national interest as by market forces.

Despite the historical comparison to Silicon Valley, panelists argued Europe’s strengths are finally playing to its advantage.

“Sometimes the edge is being different not just trying to be like the Valley,” she added.

The conversation turned personal when asked what investors actually look for in a founder.

Top answers:

And perhaps most practically, a founder’s ability to understand what their investor needs in return and whether they’re aligned on ambition.

Forget founders flying to London for funding. The geography of venture is decentralizing fast.

Dublin, Istanbul, Amsterdam, Manchester, and Vilnius were all cited as emerging hotbeds, with VCs traveling more to meet teams on their turf. McGinnis even cited Salesforce’s recent acquisition of an AI startup whose CEO lives in Derby.

But despite global access, proximity still matters. Rana observed a post-remote correction: teams want to build in person again. “Talent is everywhere but in-person connection is accelerating progress.”

When it comes to exits, Europe’s stock exchanges still lag. While some call for a unified European exchange to keep listings local, Stadlen was skeptical: “We already have a global tech exchange, it’s called NASDAQ.”

Still, Moyroud noted, the lack of strong local markets matters: it affects where LP returns are recycled, and how sovereign capital shapes the next generation of founders. Europe must fight to keep some of that value onshore.

Independently Created. Not affiliated with SXSW.

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